As I type this, there is just over 1 hour left until the final Formula One race of the season at Interlagos, Brazil, gets underway.
For the first time since 1986, there’s a three-way fight for the championship which will be decided today. Now, I find it quite hard to write about Formula One, because I know that some people really couldn’t care less about it. I think, though, that everyone should have an urge to watch the race today, which could be the most eagerly awaited season finale for a good while – the last time a championship was decided at the last race was in 2003, also at Brazil where Michael Schumacher finished eighth to take the single point he needed.
Back in 1986 it came down to Nigel Mansell, Alain Prost and Nelson Piquet. Mansell blew a tyre in the waning laps, and Prost took the title.
It could be just as exciting this year with Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, and Kimi Raikkonen separated by just seven points – the Rookie, the Champion, and the Most Talented Driver On The Grid Never To Have Won The Championship (you come up with something better…).
Lewis Hamilton, 107 points:
Everyone knows his story by now. First black driver in Formula One. Rookie. Unbelievable talent and seemingly intelligent with it. We’ve waited the entire season for Hamilton to make those first year errors – but he just never made them. He was impetuous in Hungary and overambitious in China, but would you call those rookie mistakes? I don’t think so.
Back in 1998, Mika Hakkinen was four points up on Michael Schumacher going into the final race at Suzuka. Schumacher scored pole, topping Hakkinen by just one-tenth of a second, but stalled on the second restart, which pushed him to the back of the grid. The point is that no drivers make it through an entire season without a few cases of brain fade along the way.
Fernando Alonso, 103 points:
With another title, Alonso will have won three in a row, something only Juan Manuel Fangio (1954-1957) and Michael Schumacher (2000-2004) have accomplished. Pretty amazing stuff.
Like Ayrton Senna, you know that he has a will to win at any cost – the one man demolition act he’s performed at McLaren this year shows that he will do anything to destabilise those around him in order to win.
Which concerns me because if it comes down to a final lap all or nothing effort, I fear Alonso will take people off the track. The McLaren has shown itself to be a very strong, very reliable car this year and I think he will take advantage of that… time will tell.
Kimi Raikkonen, 100 points:
Down seven points, Raikkonen really doesn’t have a shot, unless the two McLarens take each other out – something that isn’t wholly unrealistic.
He is the only driver this year to win 5 races, and in the last seven races since the European Grand Prix in July, he has scored more points (48) than either Hamilton (37) or Alonso (35).
For those trying to figure out the results combination for this weekend’s finale, the BBC offers a summary:
Hamilton will be champion if:
- He wins or finishes second
- He finishes ahead of both his rivals
- He finishes no lower than second if Alonso wins
- He finishes no lower than fifth if Alonso is second
- He finishes no lower than fifth if Raikkonen wins
- He finishes no lower than seventh if Alonso is third and/or Raikkonen is second
- He finishes no lower than eighth if Alonso is fourth
- If Alonso if fifth or lower and Raikkonen finishes third or lower.
For Alonso to win, the Spaniard must:
- Win with Hamilton third or lower
- Finish second with Hamilton sixth or lower
- Finish third with Hamilton eighth or lower, and Raikkonen failing to win
- Finish fourth with Hamilton lower than eighth, and Raikkonen lower than second
For Raikkonen to be champion, the Finn must:
- Win with Hamilton sixth or lower and Alonso lower than second
- Finish second with Hamilton below seventh and Alonso lower than third
If Hamilton wins or comes second, the title is his, but after that there are a number of possible eventualities – and the fact that Alonso will be champion if the Spaniard wins and Hamilton is third or lower emphasizes how close it is. But if Alonso finishes outside the top four his hopes disappear, while Raikkonen has to come first or second to keep his slim chances alive.
I’m going for Hamilton, how about you?
Links and references (all open in a new window):
- Lewis Hamilton photo from F1 Chronicles.com
- Fernando Alonso photo from Fernando Alonso.com
- Kimi Raikkonen photo from ABC.net
- Some text and general idea from The New York Times Blog
- Title showdown summary from BBC.co.uk
